Travis County Republican filings as of Monday

The blue dot's got some Republicans who have filed in a handful of seats - I'm told we'll see more in the coming days.

*Rosemary Edwards, running for re-election as Travis County Republican Party Chairman
*Raymond Frank, candidate for Travis County Sheriff
*Al Herrera, candidate for Travis County Constable, Precinct 2
*Mike Varela, candidate for Travis County Constable, Precinct 3
*Gerald Daugherty, candidate for Travis County Commissioner Precinct 3
*Paul Workman, candidate for State Representative District 47

UPDATED: Primary filing begins, SCOTUS receives stay requests

It is hard to know exactly who has filed until press releases go out or county Republican parties see fit to share the information they have, but the most intriguing news so far is that Rep. Todd Hunter has filed for re-election. Hunter is currently chairman of the Calendars Committee in the Texas House and the only chairman who was “paired” in the redistricting maps (as redrawn by the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals). His colleague Rep. Geanie Morrison was drawn into HD 32. No word yet on her intentions.

Read the whole thing at Empower Texans: UPDATED: Primary filing begins, SCOTUS receives stay requests

WilCo Republicans filed as of 2:30pm Monday

As of 2:30pm on Monday 11/28, these are the local candidates who filed to run in the Republican primary in Williamson County:

Larry Gonzales State Representative, District 52
Lisa Birkman County Commissioner, Pct 1
Tony Dale State Representative, District 106
Robert Chody Constable, Pct 1
Richard Coffman Constable, Pct 2
Bobby Gutierrez Constable, Pct 3
Marty Ruble Constable, Pct 4
Rick Kennon County Attorney
John Bradley District Attorney
Betsy Lambeth 425th District Judge
Deborah M. Hunt Tax Assessor-Collector

In addition to this, Rep. Charles Schwertner has filed with the Republican Party of Texas to run for State Senate in SD 5.

Statewide filing news

Alrighty then, let's get down to it.

Candidate filing began today, though there was perhaps not the rush that usually comes with Day One.  That's due to the stay requests filed with the U.S. Supreme Court (more on that here), but the chance of significant map changes didn't stop some candidates.  A full list of statewide/multi-county candidates on the Republican side can be found at this link, and the Democrats seem to have stuck with Twitter (hashtag #txd2012).

Very interesting note from the Republican side.  The only changed map that is set in stone is the State Board of Education map.  As of 4:30pm Texas time on Monday, no Republicans have filed for the SBOE.  We'll obviously see that change, but it is very odd that this is the one sure thing right now and yet, no action.

Just as I was about to hit post on this - QR is reporting that Burt Solomons is telling people he's not running for reelection.  Hmmm.

Congratulations, and Don’t Get Cocky - By Jonah Goldberg - The Corner - National Review Online

A fantastic, brief message to the new "frontrunner" in the Republican primary battle.

Congratulations, and Don’t Get Cocky - By Jonah Goldberg - The Corner - National Review Online:

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Condescending campaigning helps no one

I have really tried to stay out of and away from debates about the Republican presidential nominees.  Mostly, I don't think the debate has been at all productive - it's just a bunch of "I'm loyal to Candidate X and you are promoting Obama's reelection if you aren't, too."  Not to mention the flat-out mean-spirited holier-than-thou attitude of almost everyone.  So I want to address just one problem, and I'll leave the myriad other problems for others to talk about.

All of you.  Romney fans in particular, but ALL of you.  Stop threatening the base.  Stop trying to make assumptions about the base.  Stop pretending that you ARE the base.  Just stop.

"The base" is best defined as those individuals who will vote Republican, period.  They'll do so in the primary, and they'll do so in November.  They don't typically "stay home" because that is antithetical to who they are, but sometimes sheer disgust will keep them there (2006 in Texas, there were LOTS of examples of this).  They are Republicans.  Why they are Republicans probably differs from person to person.  Generally speaking, the base is pro-life, pro-defense, and anti-tax.  What they are not is dumb.  They are capable of making decisions in the primary without you telling them what that decision should be.  If they aren't lockstep with one candidate right now, there is good reason for it. And that brings me to Mitt Romney.

It would tickle some people enormously to discover that Romney's Mormonism was keeping his poll numbers from exceeding 26%.  But it doesn't seem to have sunk in with those same people that Romney's unapologetic, faux-federalist support for state-sponsored universal health care in Massachusetts may be his "baggage."  It doesn't seem to have hit Romney apologists that his seemingly perpetual candidacy (he's been campaigning for president longer than he served as governor) may not be selling him as well as they'd like.  The slick, polished, northeastern "charm" isn't working in the flyover states and no one seems to get why that is.  So they just say, over and over, that the "base" needs to realize that the country is not as conservative as they think it is, and that they must support Romney now with all their hearts if they want a shot at beating Obama next November.

The base may be divided about what they want in a presidential candidate; some are willing to put up with "baggage," others with gaffes, some with longshots, others with the fringe, and yes, some are totally fine with slick, polished, professional, etc.  What they don't want is a repeat of 2008, when they grudgingly conceded to support a consensus candidate whose conservatism was too easily called into question by his record and rhetoric.  Back then, Romney even seemed like a conservative alternative, but we were being told over and over by the establishment and the media that McCain was the only Republican candidate who could overcome the juggernaut of either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.  And the base never really bought it, they never truly believed it, and McCain's candidacy was lukewarm even after the shot in the arm that was Sarah Palin.  Too little too late.

The mocking, rude "oh, you're supporting X?  you must want to LOSE in November" is ridiculous.  It is as bad as the "oh, you're supporting X?  you must be a LIBERAL at heart" that comes from certain other primary voters that get a little overzealous about their candidate.  I really believe that every Republican's attitude ought to be "oh, you're supporting Obama?  you must be a liberal who wants to lose in November."  THAT ought to be the material point.

So if you're supporting Herman Cain, or Rick Perry, or Newt Gingrich, or Ron Paul, or Michele Bachmann, or Mitt Romney, or Jon Huntsman, or Rick Santorum, or ------, calm the heck down.  Your candidate needs to be sold on your candidate's merits, and not on the others' shortcomings.  It really isn't going to help us with the real issue at hand - defeating the most liberal, and most destructive, president since Jimmy Carter.  And if you alienate "the base" now by presuming to tell them they're wrong?  Count on them doing the very thing you fear most - staying home in November 2012.

US court won't block its Texas redistricting map - Yahoo! News

More predictably crappy news out of San Antonio, as of Friday. The court there already said they won't issue a stay for the Texas legislative maps (that happened Wednesday) - on Friday they followed up saying they won't do it for the Congressional map, either. The Congressional map, you'll recall, makes three of the four new districts Democratic by electoral history, and severely curtailed Republican strength in several other districts.

Candidate filing begins Monday. AG Abbott is planning to appeal the court's ruling on all maps to the U.S. Supreme Court. We're really still in limbo in a lot of ways.

Read more:

US court won't block its Texas redistricting map - Yahoo! News:

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Why McCaul shouldn't give up on CD-10

Everyone's more or less talking about other changes to the congressional map, like CD-23 and CD-25 and what Doggett got, etc., and not so much Michael McCaul's new district.  Congressman McCaul is in CD-10, which was shifted to pick up more of Travis County and part of Williamson County.  The Katy and Tomball areas, down in Harris County, were cut out, and just like that the district's much more of central Texas seat than it was before.  Parts of CD-17 (Flores) and CD-25 (Doggett) were also drawn into the seat.

The Democrat talking heads are already crowing, somehow convincing themselves that because Diana Maldonado accidentally won in part of what McCaul picked up, the seat could flip.  They're also convinced that more of Travis County means McCaul is more vulnerable.  But the data doesn't necessarily bear that out.  The Williamson County precincts that are in CD-10 on the proposed interim map were overwhelmingly Republican in 2010 - that area is growing fast, too, and it is growing Republican.  Carter was the undisputed champ in 2010, as were all the other Republicans on the ballot in that area.  I think the Williamson County pick-up alone could make up for what CD-10 lost in Katy and Tomball.

The Travis County precincts that were in CD-10 were less solid for McCaul but leaned Republican overall, and the CD-21 precincts that would move into CD-10 are still Republican, going for Smith in 2010 even more solidly.  The top five precincts for turnout in the Travis portion of CD-21 in 2010 (256, 334, 337, 374, and 377) were all over 50% for Smith.  Those same precincts went for Perry, Dewhurst, and Abbott with no problem.  Outside Travis County, the same that has been true for awhile bears out - the new rural areas in the district will go Republican again, and so will the ones McCaul already had.

Is the district, overall, less Republican than it has been?  Yes.  It could be a swing district, in a bad year for Republicans.  2012, though, isn't going to be anyone's idea of a bad year for Republicans if the trends continue, and McCaul has every reason to believe he's as safe as he was.  McCaul has toyed with the idea of running for another office, and he's rumored to be after the attorney general's seat in 2014.  But there's no reason to believe he should go after another statewide seat in 2012 - the map favors him, especially with a well-run, visible campaign in the areas he's been quieter in before.  Even Pflugerville, which was less enthusiastic about his candidacy than it was for the statewide Republicans, leans more Republican than Democrat in this race, and could be easily won.  I would hate for this map to change Congressman McCaul's intentions, and I think there is a solid case for why and how he could win this seat for another term.

First glance at the interim Congressional map

Very most important thing for you to know about the interim map as proposed - Texas gained 4 new seats in the census, and on this map, 3 of them were drawn for Democrats.  THREE.  And the Barton and Canseco (both currently Republican) seats were drawn as swing seats.  Ladies and gentlemen, it is ON.  You can bet the AG's office doesn't sit still for this.

My house in the NW Austin area had been drawn into CD 17 (Flores), and now we're back in CD 10 (McCaul).  That's the first thing I took a look at.  After that, Travis County as a whole.  Lloyd Doggett was given back his "safe" seat (explain to me again - how does protecting a white Democrat ensure "representation" for Hispanics in Congress??); the threat of Joaquin Castro was eliminated by limiting the seat to just Travis and Hays counties.   The CD 25 enacted by the Legislature disappeared (more below) and Lamar Smith (CD 21) regained most of those precincts from the looks of it.  Basically, Travis County is back to the same ol' thing, more or less.

CD 10, incidentally, was drawn up into Williamson County, and WilCo overall was split in 2 (new district numbers:  10 and 31).  Congressman Carter is from Round Rock and it looks as though the town was split in half.   The new CD 31 that takes the majority of Williamson County also takes Bell, Lampasas, Burnet, Coryell, and Hamilton counties.

The "new" CD 25 enacted by the Legislature went away completely, as I said.  The territory north of Travis County was divvied up into CDs 31 and 17.  How this affects the Congressional intentions of the campaigning hoard remains to be seen.  Remember, one need not have residency in the Congressional seat one wishes to run in.  Nonetheless, a lot of people have been campaigning for months for CD 25, and sinking a lot of money into material that says so in addition to rhetoric and handshakes in places they won't have voters in now.

Elsewhere in the state - CD 33, the seat that Roger Williams switched to run in, had been drawn by the Legislature to encompass a portion of Tarrant County, all of Parker County, and a portion of Wise County.  It is now condensed to just Tarrant County and appears to be majority-minority.  Will be interesting to see how the campaign reacts to that.

Trouble could be brewing for Congressman Joe Barton - his district has gone down to 53% Republican and about 58% minority.  This is CD 6, given a greater portion of Dallas County in the proposed map.

I'm not as familiar with Houston as I should be, but there are shifts there as well.

Will keep comparing and see what I can find.  Meanwhile, there are a lot of pundits looking at this and if I find a good breakdown, I'll pass it on.

Interim congressional map is out

Comments and objections due by noon on Friday.  That's right - the day after Thanksgiving.

Gives new meaning to the term "Black Friday," don't you think?

More info.  If you go to http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us, look for Plan C220 under "All Plans."

Three things to be thankful for in Texas

There are a lot of reasons to be thankful to live in Texas today. The wide open spaces, Friday night football, the lack of bitter cold. I could go on and make a whole huge list, but I’ll leave that to Gary P. Nunn. After all, this is a political space, and I’m a political pundit, of sorts. So, politically: living in Texas is sometimes like living in a demilitarized zone – you know the bad guys are just over the fence with their rifle sights trained on your back, and you aren’t really sure about which side you should worry more. That being said, there are benefits to living here, and they are myriad, even if we get caught up in the minutiae from time to time.

So, while we’re counting the reasons to be grateful this holiday season, let’s look at three big reasons to be grateful we’re in Texas today.

Three things to be thankful for in Texas

Just in time for turkey frying

Travis County has lifted the countywide burn ban for a period of one week.  This was decided during today's county commissioners meeting.

This is obviously not as thrilling in terms of news as the redistricting debate or the presidential primary or anything like that....but hey, with cookies in my oven and squash casserole on my mind, a burn ban lift seems to fit with the holiday spirit.

Travis County impacted in interim redistricting maps

Right as everyone was leaving for the day and stuck in rush hour traffic, the federal court in San Antonio released the interim electoral maps for the Texas House and Texas Senate.  There's a 24-hour response period.  There are some major changes - SD 10, the Wendy Davis seat, was redrawn to previous lines more or less, and in the House map, there are more Republican pairings (some that create issues, like Todd Hunter paired with Geanie Morrison, and others that don't, like Rick Hardcastle paired with Lanham Lyne.  We do not yet have an interim Congressional map though we can expect it probably Friday or Monday.

I'm still trying to suss out everything here, but I thought I'd pull down some maps and post them here for you.  This is just Travis County and southern Williamson; because of the way I did the captures, parts of Hays and Bastrop Counties are included.  You'll need to know your precinct if you want to know if things changed for you specifically.  I did do an overlay to compare the changes from the adopted House map and the interim House map.  If these are small you should be able to click on them in order to see the whole thing.  You can also go to District Viewer to look at everything - http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us, and then (poached from QR): Hit "Select Plans", Then Hit "Base Plan". The drop down menu for "Plan Type" will take you to the House, Senate, Congress. Hit all. The last one under Perez is the Senate map and Davis v Perry is the House map.

This is the map for Travis County enacted by the Legislature earlier this year.  The unmarked seat in the middle is HD 49 (Elliott Naishtat).  Note that in Williamson County, the seat covering Cedar Park is HD 149.

This is the proposed interim map from the San Antonio court.  Note the significant changes for HD 46 (Dawnna Dukes) and HD 48 (Donna Howard).  In Williamson County, note the change for the new seat covering Cedar Park - the number is now HD 106.

This is probably very hard to read, but this is the maps combined.  The base plan is the enacted map, and the red lines indicate the changes made by the court.  In this you can see the very big change to HD 46/HD 50 in particular, and see how the northern Leander area was taken out of the new Williamson County seat.  For the record, under the new map, HD 47 is still going to have a contested primary - Paul Workman's challenger Ryan Downton lives off 620 and is still in HD 47 under the interim map (that area had been in HD 48 until the House map was passed).

Okay, now for the Senate.

This is the map enacted by the Legislature.  The green is SD 14 (Kirk Watson), pink is SD 24 (Troy Fraser), orange is SD 25 (Wentworth) and blue is SD 21 (Zaffarini).

Okay, this one is the proposed interim map.  Not much change, really, for Travis.

And here's the overlay.  The base map was the enacted Senate map, and the red lines indicate where the lines are under the interim map.  The change affects a few precincts, adding some to SD 24 in particular.

Alright, that's my first stab.  I'll take a closer look at Travis to get an idea of exactly which precincts are affected, but the bigger concern is what's happening elsewhere in the state, so I'll try and have some info on that as well.  Others will likely have breakdowns as well and I'll link to those as I find them.

Formula 1 deal all out of gas

It was kind of inevitable, folks.  Believing that Formula One was going to come to Austin and be the first successful, money-making (for the locals), taxpayer-subsidized F1 race in the United States was a bit like believing that the Great Pumpkin rises out of the pumpkin patch every Halloween.  You'll excuse me if I revel in the schadenfreude just a bit.

So, what happened, exactly?  Formula One bigwig and quasi-Bond villian Bernie Ecclestone started hemming and hawing last week that it didn't look like there would be a race in Austin in November 2012 like he had first stated (and don't look in New Jersey, where a track is being built without taxpayer money - something Ecclestone had sworn would not happen).  The Circuit of the Americas CEO's reaction was shock and disbelief.  Everything's on track, he said.  All these workers!  All this money!  As for the state of Texas, which pledged to back the Formula One track with a $25 million subsidy, well, that was going forward as planned, though there were certainly concerns that the whole thing was looking rather bad.

Then, this afternoon, things changed.  Almost as if the rain that came to Austin washed the soap out of the eyes of certain statewide elected officials.  Comptroller Susan Combs said this afternoon - no race, no money.  Pretty huge development, I'd say, given how big a champion of the race Combs has been to this point.  No word yet from Senator Kirk Watson, for whom this has been quite the pet project over the last few years.

So construction has now halted.  Maybe if this goes on long enough, those guys could go work on the Eagle Ford shale (and, as it happens, make a lot more money)?

The sad end of this played out in a newscast Sunday evening - one of the local stations interviewed employees of hotel chains that are working to improve and expand facilities in anticipation of race crowds.   It is pretty disgusting that Ecclestone's promises of a bright, Ferrari-filled future for south Travis County will be dashed like this, though again, why anyone bought into them is beyond me.  Does anyone else remember what AutoWeek's Dutch Mandel wrote to Austinites, and Texans, back in June?

"If the cradle of American motorsports, the home of the Greatest Spectacle in Racing, Indianapolis Motor Speedway, failed to keep F1 in America, what makes Austin--not the promoters, who have a bunch of reasons, maybe quite true, for why they are different--think it can succeed?"

Indeed - it turns out, we are no different, especially to the likes of fatcats such as Ecclestone.

City of Killeen voters recall all five council members

I haven't been following this closely, but the successful petition drive that put a recall on today's ballot for all five of Killeen's city council members achieved a final victory tonight.  After the council approved $750,000 to buy out the contract of the former city manager, and refused to justify the situation to taxpayers, citizens decided to take decisive action.  Estate of Denial has more information on just what took place.

Check out the election results here.

Election results show antipathy to tax hikes

I'm writing this with about 87% of the vote total in statewide; we know pretty clearly which amendments have failed and which ones passed at this point.  The only truly overwhelming passage was for Proposition 1, extending a property tax exemption to surviving spouses of deceased 100% disabled veterans who qualified for an exemption in life (82% to 17% as of this writing).  Three amendments have failed:  Proposition 4, which dealt with county bonding authority for TIF zones (I wrote about why Prop 4 was such a bad idea in this blog post for Empower Texans); Proposition 7 (extending certain authorities to El Paso County); and Proposition 8 (special property appraisals for land).

Other than that, the constitutional amendments are passing.  What I find disappointing is that while voters are clearly making a statement that they don't want tax increases or things that might tamper with their property rights, they're still willing to write blank checks and increase debt that will burden future taxpayers.  The passage of Props. 2 and 3 should worry Texans, because increased debt IS a tax increase - albeit a delayed one.  The passage of Prop. 3 in particular, as it dealt with authorizing more money for student loans, shows a complete lack of understanding about the way such debt works - and a continued willingness to avoid confronting the issue of higher education cost and funding head-on.

Prop. 6's passage is frankly baffling - there was extreme opposition to the very idea of raiding the Permanent School Fund, coming from both sides of the ideological aisle.  The state's largest teacher union, the AFL-CIO, conservative SBOE member Ken Mercer and former member Don McLeroy, and many others were opposed to the idea.  All I can think is that voters somehow believed that raiding the fund (which we will now do for the first time in over a century) will "solve" or mitigate funding issues in schools.  Instead, by putting money from the PSF into the Available School Fund, we've essentially opened the door to a further raid on funding for education, since the Available School Fund is not sacrosanct for education.

At the local level, a tax rate increase failed (74% against) in Dripping Springs ISD, but at the same time, a $158 million debt package passed in Lake Travis ISD.  Travis County voters proved their continued deep gullibility by approving both of the bond propositions on the ballot.  

The so-called "can ban" in New Braunfels passed comfortably (probably because most of the opposition to such a ban couldn't actually VOTE in New Braunfels).  

Close to home - all of the charter amendments in Pflugerville passed, and so did those in Round Rock.  In a funny twist, the Travis County residents who were able to vote in Round Rock voted against the amendments, and the Williamson County residents who were able to vote in Pflugerville voted against the amendments there.  Of course, that was a grand total of 5 voters from what I can tell....

Still looking at other local bonds and tax rate propositions, so I'll update again when I have more info.  There's also the matter of HD 14's special election, which is going to a runoff between two Republicans (this is the race to replace retiring Rep. Fred Brown).  

Cowboys’ Jones finds a new way to milk fans | Empower Texans

Cowboys’ Jones finds a new way to milk fans | Empower Texans:

The North Texas Tollway Authority let it be known yesterday that you can now show off your support for the Dallas Cowboys by purchasing a Dallas Cowboys commemorative toll tag. For the bargain price of $22.99, you can show the rest of DFW where your true loyalties lie year-round!

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Goods-in-transit tax up for discussion at Central Health Wedsnesday

Once upon a time (2007), some officials sitting on a board to which they were appointed (not elected) decided to impose a tax on citizens.  They followed the law of the land, which required public notice in a newspaper and probably in the county courthouse, and passed the tax without much discussion or any dissension.  A few years later, a new law said they could keep the tax, but only if they hold a public hearing to discuss and vote on keeping it.

I wish this were just another grim tale, but unfortunately, it's happening right here in Travis County (and likely other counties across the state).  The Central Health board will hold a public hearing on the "goods-in-transit" tax  that I'll bet very few Travis County residents even knew existed until just now.  This is a personal property tax that is just like the tax property owners pay to the health district currently, only it is applied to "personal property (such as equipment or merchandise) that is in transit (not on the premises of the business), but property for which the business here in Travis County has title — owns" (that's what Central Health CFO John Stephens explained to the Statesman).

Central Health says this tax doesn't bring in much money, though Stephens couldn't tell the Statesman just how much of the $8 million in personal property tax money comes from the "goods-in-transit" tax currently.  I'd say, it doesn't really matter how much a tax brings in - the point is that people should understand all the taxes they are subject to, and have a legitimate opportunity to weigh in on such things.  I don't know how many people saw this article on the Statesman's website or in this morning's paper copy, but I'm willing to bet the number was small.  I'm willing to bet the number of people who really get this tax are even fewer.

The hearing is set for 5:30pm on Wednesday, at the Central Health administrative offices at 1111 E. Cesar Chavez.  Of course, like all board meetings of Central Health, it's held at an inconvenient time for public commentary, but it satisfies the legal requirement for such meetings.